The Fallacy of Averages

We are sometimes inclined to look with considerable satisfaction upon columns of assorted figures which seem to indicate that all is well with the average. But statistical columns seldom take all of the facts in to account, and this elusive individual known as “the average” is rarely found. The fallacy of averages appears when we begin to look at what lies above and below the average. The fact that the average man isn’t starving doesn’t tell us anything about the man who is starving. The fact that the average man may try to meet his honest obligations doesn’t prove anything about the people who don’t make much effort to meet their obligations. The fact that the average rainfall is adequate doesn’t give much comfort to a farmer who has to face floods at one time and burning drouth at another. The fact that the average temperature in a certain city is seventy degrees doesn’t take into account that it may be unbearably cold in the winter and unbearable hot in summer. The Savior of the world once preached a sermon on the fallacy of averages. You won’t find these very words in holy writ. But you will remember the parable of the ninety and nine sheep who were safe, and of the one who was lost. If the Good Shepherd had been deceived by the fallacy of averages, he would perhaps have failed to go forth to find the one who was lost. Averages may no mean much when we are speaking of your children or of mine, or of ourselves or even of other men. “You may prove anything by figures,” wrote Thomas Carlyle. But every man, woman, and child who walks the earth is an individual with his own immortal identity, and the personal problems of people are not frequently solved by figures or by fixed formulas from far places. We must look at people and their problems individually and with open eyes. Figures can be made to fool us if we will let them.